Monday, April 21, 2008

What Recession?

The official measure of a U.S. recession is two successive quarters of negative economic growth. But, as I heard one commentator recently, present economic expansion – though still positive – is very low and, he opined, if it feels like a recession, then it is.

I don’t know if that last statement is true or not, but anyone who found himself at Costco in Bridgewater Sunday afternoon would have to rethink this whole recession issue. Every checkout register was busy recording purchases. Each line reached into the shopping area, and all of Costco’s oversized checkout carts were brimming.

My wife and I were in one of those serpentine lines that day with only an outdoor table umbrella. At $99.99, it would be hard to find a better comparable value. But the place is a madhouse on weekends. Anecdotally, at least, most people who shop at Costco in Bridgewater don’t seem to have changed their consumption habits much.

I wish we could get a micro-economic assessment of GDP growth specifically for Somerset County, New Jersey. If that number were reported side-by-side with national data, it might show better results, even though the housing market in Somerset County is still depressed.

Within spitting distance from our home, there is a better-than-new ranch house on a large parcel of land that is on the market at a price far below what it would have fetched just 18 months ago. Now, that’s depressing!

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